Authority Migration Probability (AMP+)

Authority Migration Probability (AMP+) is the AI Career Index's 24-month forward-looking projection. It expresses three probabilities that always sum to 100 percent: the probability that structural pressure will push a role upward in the authority stack, hold it flat, or compress it downward over the next two years. While the Compression Exposure Index reads your present-state pressure and the Authority Band reads your current altitude, AMP+ models the directional pressure on your role.

AMP+ is the metric that turns the AI Career Index from a static reading into a planning instrument. A CEI score tells you where you are now. AMP+ tells you which way the wind is blowing. The 6-Month Acceleration Plan inside Premium is built around shifting your AMP+ profile, which is what makes it a structural plan rather than a list of self-improvement goals.

Why migration, not prediction

AMP+ is deliberately framed as migration, not as prediction. Predicting an individual's career outcome two years out is a fool's game and the AI Career Index does not do it. Too many variables that the model does not see (your manager rotates, your industry has a regulatory shock, you have a child, a competitor enters your market, a generational tooling shift lands earlier than expected) determine the actual outcome. Modelling the structural direction of pressure on a role, given the role's current configuration and the trajectory of its industry, is a different exercise entirely. It is closer to actuarial modelling than to fortune-telling, and it is a question the structural inputs can actually answer.

The distinction matters in practice because users sometimes read AMP+ as a horoscope. It is not. A high downward migration probability does not predict that your career will fail. It says that the structural slope under your role is sloped downward, and the longer you stay on it without intervention, the more your effort is fighting the slope. A high upward migration probability does not promise success. It says that the structural slope is sloped upward, and a moderate amount of well-targeted effort compounds in your favour rather than against it. The job of AMP+ is to make the slope visible so the size and direction of your interventions can be calibrated to it.

The plus sign in AMP+ refers to the second-order modelling: the framework looks not only at how your role's current structure interacts with AI substitution, but at how the role's authority composition shifts as you move along your current trajectory. Some roles compress slowly and linearly. Some compress in a step-function once a tooling threshold is crossed (radiology AI matures, the regulatory layer in your country adopts a new standard, the dominant platform in your stack ships an autonomous-agent feature). AMP+ captures both linear and threshold dynamics, which is what makes the projection meaningfully forward-looking rather than just a slope drawn through historical data.

The three migration outcomes

AMP+ produces three readings that always sum to one hundred.

Upward migration probability. The likelihood that the structural forces on your role push it into a higher Authority Band over 24 months. High upward migration probability is the durability signal: even without aggressive intervention, the role you are in is appreciating, and the value capture above your current band is accruing to you naturally as the substitutable layer beneath you compresses.

Downward migration probability. The likelihood that compression takes a structural bite out of the role's authority scope. High downward migration probability is the urgency signal: the slope under the role is sloped downward, and the next two years of unchanged structural inputs produce a worse band, lower wage premium, or a smaller scope. This does not mean job loss; it means structural compression that erodes the position even when the title and salary remain nominally stable.

Neutral hold probability. The likelihood that the role stays structurally where it is. High neutral hold means the role's structure is durable enough to absorb 24 months of compression without losing band, but is not appreciating either. This is the most common reading we see for senior individual contributors in regulated industries and for skilled trades with stable demand.

These three numbers are not predictions about your specific career. They are readings of the structural slope your role currently sits on. The actionable interpretation is the gap between your current band and where the upward and downward probabilities point: if upward is 65% and downward is 15%, the slope is steeply in your favour and the priority is execution; if downward is 60% and upward is 10%, the slope is steeply against you and the priority is structural intervention.

What AMP+ actually reads from

AMP+ is computed deterministically from four inputs derived from your assessment and from the role-baseline data published for the 1,014 roles in the framework.

Role-baseline migration slope. Each tracked role has a published structural slope based on its task composition, its industry context, and its position on the compression curve. High-routine roles in industries with weak regulatory friction have negative slopes; judgement-heavy roles in regulated industries have positive slopes. This is the starting point and it is the reason two professionals with identical personal scores in different roles can have very different AMP+ profiles.

Personal Authority Band gap. The distance between your current Authority Band and the band the role typically appreciates toward. If the role is a Senior Software Engineer and the natural appreciation path is into Architect band but you are still operating in Operator band, the gap is a structural drag on your AMP+. The plan moves you across the gap.

Tooling-threshold proximity. Some roles have visible tooling thresholds in the next 24 months: an autonomous-agent capability that lands in your stack, a regulatory liberalisation that opens AI substitution in a previously protected layer, a platform shift in your industry. AMP+ reads role-level proximity to known thresholds and adjusts the projection. Roles inside 12 months of a known threshold see sharper downward migration probabilities than the static slope suggests.

Personal slope-modifier inputs. Two professionals in identical roles can have different AMP+ readings because their personal inputs (income leverage, AI tooling fluency, market alignment, structural drag from existing commitments) modify the role-baseline slope. The personal inputs typically modify the projection by 10 to 20 percentage points in either direction, which is the difference between accepting the role-baseline slope and bending it.

Reading the projection chart

Inside the dashboard, AMP+ is rendered as a 24-month projection comparing two paths: the Drift Path (what happens if nothing structural changes) and the Strategic Path (what happens if you execute the Acceleration Plan). The gap between those two paths is the value of the intervention.

If the gap is wide, the plan is high-leverage and the value of the structural intervention is large. If the gap is narrow, the structural conditions of your role are doing most of the work for you and the plan focuses on protecting that position rather than rebuilding it. Both outcomes are valid readings; the framework is not telling you to act when no action is needed.

The chart also visualises the three probabilities as a stacked profile that updates over the 24-month horizon. A role with a static profile (probabilities steady through the projection) is on a stable slope; a role with a steepening downward profile is on a slope that gets worse with time. This is most often the case in roles facing a known tooling threshold within the projection window.

How AMP+ feeds the Acceleration Plan

The 6-month Acceleration Plan is built around shifting your AMP+ profile. Every recommended move in the plan is sequenced so that it produces a measurable shift in upward migration probability. That is the difference between a generic career plan and a structural intervention. The plan is not telling you what is interesting or comfortable. It is telling you what changes the slope.

The plan picks the moves that produce the biggest AMP+ shift for the structural cost. A move that lifts upward migration probability from 25% to 45% over six months is a high-leverage move. A move that lifts it from 25% to 28% is generally not in the plan even if it sounds reasonable, because the leverage is too low for the effort required. This is why the plan often includes moves that feel uncomfortable: those are usually the moves with the largest AMP+ shift.

Common questions

How accurate is AMP+ as a 24-month projection? Accuracy is the wrong frame because AMP+ is not a prediction. The relevant question is whether the directional reading is reliable. Across the AI Career Index dataset the directional reading (positive vs negative slope) is consistent for the same role over six-month re-runs, which is the property we care about. Magnitude estimates carry more uncertainty and are best read as bands rather than point estimates.

Why 24 months and not 12 or 36? Beyond 24 months the variance in AI tooling capability swamps the structural slope, and projections become speculation. Inside 12 months the structural slope is hard to separate from short-cycle noise. 24 months is the horizon where the structural slope dominates and the AI tooling roadmap is visible enough to incorporate.

Can AMP+ change between assessments? Yes, in three ways. Your personal inputs change (you take on more leverage, your tooling fluency improves, your role's authority scope expands). The role-baseline shifts (the framework is recalibrated annually as new tooling thresholds become visible). A tooling threshold in your industry crosses, which step-functions the projection. The framework re-runs the calculation against the latest inputs each time you re-assess.

What is a 'good' AMP+ profile? Upward migration probability above 50% with downward below 20% is a strong profile. Upward 30-50% with neutral hold dominant is a defensible profile that the Acceleration Plan can lift. Downward above 40% is a structural urgency signal: the next six months matter more than the previous five years of credentials, and the executor-to-architect migration is almost always in the plan.

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